> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://revhero.gitbook.io/revhero-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://revhero.gitbook.io/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/outputs.md). # Reading the forecast Every forecast metric Revhero produces, where each one appears, and what to do about what it tells you. Revhero produces a forecast for 5 metrics for each future stay date: **Revenue**, **Room Nights**, **Occupancy**, **ADR** and **RevPAR**. It also produces a **forecasted pickup**, which is the extra business expected to arrive between today and the arrival date. This page is the map. It shows which metric appears where, and what each one is good for. ![Where each forecast metric appears](https://272652298-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FnzEa7YGji6t92Mfc0ZJ1%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-48547dee89a86914ad94a433191ca6d7d06a5341%2Fwhere-each-forecast-appears.svg?alt=media) *Revenue and room nights are forecast directly. Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR follow from those two.* ## What the forecast produces | Forecast | What it is | Where it appears | | --------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **REV FCST** | Expected total revenue for the period | [Revenue](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/revenue.md) widget — the forecast line and the **Rev vs FCST** figure | | **RN FCST** | Expected room nights sold | [Room Nights](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/room-nights.md) widget, and [Booking Pace](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/booking-pace.md) | | **OCC FCST** | Expected occupancy — forecast room nights divided by your total available room nights | [Occupancy](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/occupancy.md) widget | | **ADR FCST** | Expected average rate — forecast revenue divided by forecast room nights | [ADR](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/adr.md) widget | | **RevPAR FCST** | Expected revenue per available room | [RevPAR](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/revpar.md) widget | | **Forecasted pickup** | Bookings still expected to arrive before the arrival date | [Pickup](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/pickup.md) widget, shown as a projected curve | All of them appear together in the **Forecasting** block on [Daily Performance](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/daily-performance.md), for the day you have selected. Revenue and room nights are forecast directly. Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR are then calculated from those 2 numbers. This is why they never contradict each other. Forecast ADR multiplied by forecast room nights always equals forecast revenue exactly. If ADR FCST looks low while revenue looks healthy, read the pair together. You are forecast to fill the rooms at a lower average rate. ## The vs FCST figure Each of those widgets carries a figure. The figure compares your current position with the forecast for the same period. ``` vs FCST = ((on the books − forecast) ÷ forecast) × 100 ``` | Reading | Colour | Meaning | | -------- | ----------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Positive | Green | You are ahead of expectation | | Negative | Red | You are behind expectation | | −100% | Red, capped | The display stops at −100% on purpose, so an extreme number stays readable | The cap matters when the forecast is large and the books are nearly empty. Without the cap, the arithmetic would produce a number nobody can read quickly. The period underneath still needs investigating. The cap is only how the number is shown. ## Reading the chart, not just the figure Open any KPI widget and you see at least 3 lines: **actuals** to date, **forecast** forward, and **same time last year**. The comparison worth making is the forecast against last year at the end of the period. If the forecast line finishes below the same-time-last-year line, you will end the period behind on your current trajectory. That is a different signal from actuals, and you get it much earlier. ## What to do with each reading | Figure | What to do | | -------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Green, above +5% | Check that your rates are rising with the demand, so you do not sell too cheaply | | Green, 0 to +5% | You are on track. Move on to the next period | | Red, 0 to −5% | Watch [Pickup](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/pickup.md) for 1 week. Take no action yet | | Red, below −10% | Work on it. Check pace, [competitive position](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/competitor-rate-analysis.md) and restrictions | | Red, capped at −100% | The period is nearly empty against expectation. Check that the period is configured as you think it is before you assume a demand problem | ## Using forecasted pickup Forecasted pickup is the number that turns into operational decisions. Here is an example. A Saturday 3 weeks away has 60 rooms on the books and a forecasted pickup of 30 rooms. You expect to finish at about 90 rooms. In a 100-room hotel, that is about 90% occupancy, if pickup behaves normally. Use that number to time your decisions. It tells you when to tighten a minimum stay, when to review restrictions and when to push a channel. It also tells you when to stop discounting, because the business is coming anyway. ## Forecast against budget The forecast is what you will probably do. The [budget](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/budget-target.md) is what you said you would do. Compare the forecast line against the budget bar in the same widget. That single comparison is the whole planning exercise. It also changes the board conversation. You can open with a sentence like this one. > The forecast says we close at €185,000 against a €200,000 budget, and here are the 3 things we are doing about it. That is very different from a conversation that only describes what has already happened. ## If something looks wrong | What you see | Usual cause | What to do | | ----------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Every figure shows a dash | The property does not yet have enough trading history | Use the budget comparison until it does | | Occupancy or RevPAR looks wrong while Revenue looks correct | Those 2 metrics divide by your total available rooms, so the room count is the likely problem | Check [Room types & inventory](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-setup/settings/room-types-and-inventory.md) | | A forecast line is missing from one widget only | That widget's data has not refreshed | Reload the page, and check **Last Upd.** in the footer | | It changed a lot overnight | A large movement in bookings, or a refresh of the underlying figures | Check [Pickup](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/pickup.md). If pickup is normal, the baseline has simply refreshed | | Forecasted pickup looks impossibly high | An unusual period the property has not seen before | Check it against demand for those dates. It settles over the next few days | | Daily Performance and the Dashboard disagree | The 2 screens are on different reference dates | Put both screens on the same [Reference Date](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/reference-date.md) | ## Related * [Forecasting](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting.md) * [What the forecast uses](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/inputs.md) * [How the forecast behaves](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/how-the-forecast-works.md) — how much to trust a number this far ahead * [Budget & Target](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/budget-target.md) *** **Was this page helpful?** If something here is wrong, unclear or missing, email [support@revhero.com](mailto:support@revhero.com?subject=Manual%20feedback%20%5Ben%5D%20forecasting%2Foutputs.md) and quote this page: `forecasting/outputs.md`. Say what you expected to find — that is the part we can fix.