> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://revhero.gitbook.io/revhero-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://revhero.gitbook.io/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/inputs.md). # What the forecast uses The signals the forecast takes into account, and what happens to it when one of them goes stale. A forecast is only as good as the data it can see. This page lists what Revhero takes into account for a future stay date. It also explains what an old or missing signal does to the number in front of you, which matters more day to day. ![The signals the forecast takes into account](https://272652298-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FnzEa7YGji6t92Mfc0ZJ1%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-66a5ddccd0f26205ab0f8d08e63247c60e38c277%2Fwhat-the-forecast-takes-in.svg?alt=media) *Seven signals go in. An expected revenue and room-night figure comes out — and there is nothing for you to tune.* ## What it takes into account | Signal | What it contributes | | ------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Your trading history** | What this property normally does at this time of year, at this point in the booking window | | **What is on the books** | Confirmed business already held for the stay date. This is the anchor, and it carries the most weight for near dates | | **Recent pickup** | How fast you are filling now, compared with how fast you normally fill | | **Demand for your dates** | Forward-looking interest in your property and your market for that period | | **Booking behaviour** | How far ahead your guests book, and how long they stay | | **The calendar** | Day of week and time of year, so a Saturday in August is not read like a Tuesday in November | | **Whether you are open** | Your operating status for the date, so closed periods are not given demand | **Trading history** means your past bookings and revenue for this property. **On the books** means business you have already confirmed. **Pickup** is the number of room nights booked in a period of time, for example the last 7 days. Cancellations are included. The forecast is a net expectation, not a gross one. It already expects that a share of what is on the books will cancel, based on how cancellations normally behave at this property. There is no screen where you choose which signals are used. There are no per-property settings to tune. What you control is the *quality* of the data that arrives. ## Check freshness before you react A signal that has not arrived is the most common cause of a forecast that "looks wrong". 1. Open any [Dashboard](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard.md) widget and look at **Last Upd.** in the footer. It shows when your booking data last arrived. 2. **Is it current?** If not, your booking data has not come through. Email **** before you act on the forecast. 3. **Is it recent?** The forecast is working on current information. Read it as it is. {% hint style="info" %} A forecast cannot see what has not reached it. If bookings are arriving at your hotel but not reaching Revhero, the forecast will be too low. It will stay too low until the data arrives. This is why the **Last Upd.** stamp matters more to forecast quality than anything else on the screen. {% endhint %} ## Matching the symptom to the signal When a forecast surprises you, the type of surprise usually tells you which signal is at fault. | What the forecast is doing | Likely cause | | ---------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | It does not react to a clear surge in bookings | Recent business has not reached Revhero yet | | It predicts demand on a date you are closed | Your operating status for that period is wrong or missing in [Settings](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-setup/settings.md) | | It is always too high across a quiet shoulder period | There is not enough trading history yet to establish this property's seasonal shape | | It is well below a date you know is a big local event | Forward demand for that date has not registered as a lift | | It is the same as last week, although the market has moved | The underlying data has not refreshed. Check **Last Upd.** | ## What it does not take into account Read this so you do not wait for the forecast to react to something it cannot see. * **Your competitors' rates.** Market demand for your dates is the closest signal, and it is an indirect one. * **An events calendar.** Events show up indirectly, through demand for those dates, through shorter booking windows, and through what the same period did last year. There is no list of events for you to maintain. * **Channel mix on its own.** Changes between channels show up through booking behaviour, because different channels book at different lead times and lengths of stay. * **Anything you have only told a person.** A group hold agreed by telephone and not yet entered does not exist for the forecast. That last point is the practical limit of any forecast, and it is where your judgement matters. When you know something the data does not, change the rate and the restrictions. Do not wait for the number to catch up. ## What a new property should expect The forecast needs enough trading history before it can establish this property's seasonal shape. Until then, 3 things are true. * The **vs FCST** figure shows a dash, and no forecast line is drawn. * Use your [budget](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/budget-target.md) line as the comparison instead. * Tell your owners this, rather than presenting an early forecast as firm. ## If something looks wrong | What you see | Usual cause | What to do | | -------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | The forecast ignores today's pickup | Today's bookings have not arrived yet | Check **Last Upd.** and email if it is not current | | Demand is forecast on a closed date | Your operating status is missing or old | Update it in [Settings](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-setup/settings.md) | | A flat or empty forecast on a newer property | There is not enough trading history | Use the budget as the comparison instead | | Demand for your dates is blank | The demand feed is not configured for this property | Check your [integrations](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-setup/integrations.md) | ## Related * [Forecasting](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting.md) * [Reading the forecast](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/outputs.md) — what comes out the other side * [How the forecast behaves](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/how-the-forecast-works.md) * [Pickup](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/pickup.md) — the signal with the most influence on a short horizon *** **Was this page helpful?** If something here is wrong, unclear or missing, email [support@revhero.com](mailto:support@revhero.com?subject=Manual%20feedback%20%5Ben%5D%20forecasting%2Finputs.md) and quote this page: `forecasting/inputs.md`. Say what you expected to find — that is the part we can fix.