> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://revhero.gitbook.io/revhero-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://revhero.gitbook.io/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/how-the-forecast-works.md).

# How the forecast behaves

How far ahead the forecast looks, how often it moves, what moves it, and how much to trust it at each point in the booking window.

You do not need to know how Revhero produces a forecast to use it well. You do need to know how it behaves.

This page covers 4 things: how far ahead it looks, when it changes, what makes it change, and how much to trust it. The **booking window** is the time between the day a guest books and the day the guest arrives.

![A forecast tightens as the date gets closer](https://272652298-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FnzEa7YGji6t92Mfc0ZJ1%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-a0e15a5042aaf184c7206a121f10dd0b072cb3a8%2Fforecast-narrows.svg?alt=media)

*Far from the arrival date a forecast is a direction. Close to it, it is a number you can plan against.*

## How far ahead it looks

The forecast covers your whole future calendar, one stay date at a time. Every period you can select on the [Dashboard](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard.md) has a forecast against it: next weekend, next month or next season.

The useful range is smaller than the available range. Inside 30 days, the forecast is a number you can plan against. Beyond 90 days, it is a direction rather than a figure. Between 30 and 90 days it moves from one to the other.

## How often it moves

The forecast refreshes as your booking data arrives. The forecast carries its own timestamp, which tells you when it last changed.

Today's forecast for August is not last week's forecast for August. That is correct behaviour. Conditions have changed, and a forecast that stays still while the market moves is of no use.

This is why yesterday's screenshot and today's screen can look very different when nothing is wrong. Read the current forecast against the budget and against last year. Do not read it against your memory of Monday's number.

## What makes it move

| What changed                                                            | What it does to the forecast                                                                       |
| ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| A run of new bookings                                                   | Raises it. The effect is strongest on near dates, where confirmed business carries the most weight |
| A wave of cancellations                                                 | Lowers it, for the same reason                                                                     |
| Pickup speeding up or slowing down                                      | Moves it before the totals move. This is the earliest signal you get                               |
| Forward demand rising for the dates                                     | Raises it, usually first on the dates where the demand is concentrated                             |
| Booking behaviour changing, such as shorter lead times or shorter stays | Changes the shape of the forecast across the period, rather than moving it up or down              |
| Your data arriving late, or not arriving                                | Holds it still. A forecast cannot respond to bookings it has not received                          |

Check that last row before you look at any other explanation. **Last Upd.** on the [Dashboard](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard.md) shows when your booking data last arrived. If it is not current, the forecast has not seen your latest bookings. Email **<support@revhero.com>** before you act on it.

## How much to trust it, and when

| Horizon        | What it reads mostly                                                 | How to use it                                                                                 |
| -------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Inside 30 days | Business already on the books, and current pickup                    | Treat it as a number. Plan staffing, restrictions and rate moves against it                   |
| 30 to 90 days  | A mix of what is on the books and how this property normally behaves | Treat it as a working estimate. It is good enough to decide which periods need your attention |
| Beyond 90 days | Mostly the property's own seasonal pattern                           | Treat it as a direction. Read the shape, not the decimal                                      |

There are 2 practical results of this.

First, a long-horizon forecast that moves a lot from month to month is behaving normally. Nothing is broken.

Second, a large miss inside 30 days is worth investigating. That is the range where the forecast should be close. A wide gap means something real has changed, or your data is not arriving.

## When it disagrees with you

Sometimes you are right and the forecast is behind. Sometimes the forecast is reading a signal you have not noticed yet. Check 3 things before you decide which it is.

1. [**Pickup**](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/pickup.md) — is business arriving at the rate you think it is?
2. [**Booking Pace**](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/booking-pace.md) — is your trajectory really matching last year?
3. [**Online Demand**](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/online-demand-per-day.md) — is there as much interest in those dates as you believe?

If all 3 agree with the forecast, the forecast is reading reality and your expectation needs to change.

If all 3 disagree with the forecast, some data has not arrived. Check **Last Upd.** and email <support@revhero.com> if it is not current.

{% hint style="info" %}
There is one thing the forecast cannot see: anything that has not been entered. For example, a group hold agreed by telephone, a conference confirmed but not yet booked, or a road closure nobody has recorded. When you know something the data does not, change the rate and the restrictions. Do not wait for the number to agree with you.
{% endhint %}

## You cannot edit the forecast

You cannot type over a forecast number. This is deliberate.

The forecast is a reading of your position. It is not a target you set. [Budget & Target](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/budget-target.md) is where the numbers you commit to live.

If you disagree with a forecast, change the rate and the restrictions on the [Yielding Board](/revhero-docs/setting-your-rates/yielding-board.md). Change what happens, and the forecast will follow.

## If something looks wrong

| What you see                                     | Usual cause                                                                         | What to do                                                                                                |
| ------------------------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| A distant month changing from week to week       | This is normal at long horizons. There is less confirmed business to hold it steady | Read the direction, not the figure                                                                        |
| A large miss inside 30 days                      | Something real has changed, or your data is old                                     | Check **Last Upd.** and email <support@revhero.com> if it is not current. If it is, check pickup and pace |
| It does not react to something you know happened | The event is not in your data, such as a late group or a hold that is not booked    | Change the rate and the restrictions instead                                                              |
| It looks wrong right after an unusual event      | It is a one-off the forecast has not seen before                                    | It settles over the next few days as real bookings arrive. Use pickup until then                          |
| No forecast at all                               | The property does not yet have enough trading history                               | Use the [budget](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/budget-target.md) line until it does               |

## Related

* [Forecasting](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting.md)
* [What the forecast uses](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/inputs.md)
* [Reading the forecast](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/outputs.md)
* [Pickup](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/pickup.md) — the earliest signal that a forecast is about to move

***

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