> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://revhero.gitbook.io/revhero-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://revhero.gitbook.io/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting.md). # Forecasting Forecasting gives every future stay date an expected revenue and room-night outcome, so you can act on where you are heading rather than where you stand. Your on-the-books position tells you where you are today. **On the books** means the business you have already confirmed for a stay date. The **forecast** tells you where you are likely to finish. For every future stay date, Revhero produces an expected revenue and an expected number of room nights. Expected occupancy, ADR and RevPAR are then calculated from those 2 numbers. This is the difference between a reporting tool and a planning tool. A June that looks normal on actuals can be forecast to finish €18,000 short. Knowing that in April is worth much more than knowing it in July. ![On the books today, against the forecast for the period](https://272652298-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FnzEa7YGji6t92Mfc0ZJ1%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-af8f5e82676d3b8755a032f015d3dddc040ab6ca%2Fon-the-books-against-forecast.svg?alt=media) *What you have already confirmed, against where the period is likely to finish.* ## Where you will see it Forecasting is not a screen of its own. It appears inside the screens you already use. | Where | What appears | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | [Dashboard](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard.md) widgets | A forecast line next to your actuals line and your same-time-last-year line. It appears on Revenue, Room Nights, Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR | | The **vs FCST** figure | On each of those widgets. It shows your on-the-books position as a percentage of the forecast for the same period | | [Daily Performance](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/daily-performance.md) | A **Forecasting** block. It lists the forecast metrics for the day you have selected | | [Booking Pace](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/booking-pace.md) | The pace your forecast implies, against the pace you are actually achieving | Every user with access to a property can see its forecast. There is nothing to switch on and nothing to configure. ## Reading the vs FCST figure Most people use this number every day. It is worth 30 seconds of care. | What the figure says | What it means | Your first move | | -------------------- | ------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Green, above +5% | You are well ahead of expectation for this period | Check that your rates are capturing the strong demand | | Green, 0 to +5% | You are on track | Do nothing | | Red, 0 to −5% | You are slightly behind | Watch [Pickup](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/pickup.md) for 1 week before you act | | Red, below −10% | You are far behind | Work on the period now. Check pace, competitive position and restrictions | {% hint style="info" %} Forecast and [budget](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/budget-target.md) are different things, and you should read them side by side. The forecast is where you will probably finish. The budget is where you said you would finish. The gap between the 2 numbers is what you plan against. The earlier you see the gap, the more you can do about it. {% endhint %} ## Three habits that get value out of it 1. **Read the figure before you read the number.** €145,000 on the books means nothing on its own. €145,000 against a forecast of €140,000 means something. 2. **Work on periods in order of gap, not in order of date.** You may have 12 future months in front of you. Start with the 3 months where the gap between forecast and budget is widest. 3. **Trust it more as the stay date gets closer.** The forecast is most accurate inside 30 days and least accurate beyond 90 days. Read a distant month as a direction. Read next month as a number. [How the forecast behaves](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/how-the-forecast-works.md) explains this in more detail. ## When there is no forecast A property needs enough trading history before Revhero can produce a forecast for it. **Trading history** means your past bookings and revenue for this property. New properties see a dash in the **vs FCST** figure and no forecast line on the chart. So do properties that connected their data recently. Use the budget line as your comparison until enough history builds up. ## If something looks wrong | What you see | Usual cause | What to do | | -------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | No forecast line at all | The property does not yet have enough trading history | Use the budget line as the comparison until it does | | The forecast looks clearly wrong for a period | Something happened that your data does not show yet, such as a group cancellation or an event announced late | Check [Pickup](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/pickup.md). The forecast corrects itself over the next few days as bookings arrive | | The **vs FCST** figure shows −100% | The display stops at −100% on purpose, so an extreme number stays readable | Investigate the period itself. The cap is the symptom, not the cause | | One widget's forecast looks wrong, but the others look correct | Occupancy and RevPAR are divided by your total available rooms. A wrong room count changes only those 2 numbers | Check the room count in [Settings](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-setup/settings/room-types-and-inventory.md) | | The forecast disagrees with the budget | They measure different things | Read them together. The gap is the signal | | It changed a lot overnight | A large movement in bookings, or a refresh | Check [Pickup](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/dashboard/pickup.md) for unusual volume | ## Related * [What the forecast uses](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/inputs.md) — the signals behind the number * [Reading the forecast](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/outputs.md) — every forecast metric and where it appears * [How the forecast behaves](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/forecasting/how-the-forecast-works.md) — how far ahead it looks, how often it moves, how much to trust it * [Budget & Target](/revhero-docs/your-hotels-performance/budget-target.md) — the targets you read the forecast against *** **Was this page helpful?** If something here is wrong, unclear or missing, email [support@revhero.com](mailto:support@revhero.com?subject=Manual%20feedback%20%5Ben%5D%20forecasting%2FREADME.md) and quote this page: `forecasting/README.md`. 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